CausaLCEI

A Regime-Conditioned Causal Compound Event Index for Energy System Stress

CausaLCEI aims to develop an open-source three-layer framework that detects, quantifies, and causally explains compound weather events threatening renewable energy systems. First, A Self-Organizing Map classifies daily atmospheric states into energy-relevant regimes. Second, a Compound Event Index quantifies multi-variable grid stress relative to each regime. Third, a Cause-Trigger algorithm separates the background drivers that sustain events from the short-term perturbations that initiate them. The results are validated against ENTSO-E data and yield causally decomposed drivers, actionable for energy planners, grid operators, and climate services.

Mentors

  • Alberto Troccoli
  • Stefano Cordeddu
  • Gianpaolo Balsamo
  • Joaquin Munoz Sabater
  • Penny Boorman
  • Kristian Nielsen
  • Letizia Lusito
  • Christoph Rudiger

Participants

Irene Schicker

Sebastian Lehner

Annemarie Lexer